Tournament Pools Sleeper Teams

A "sleeper" team is a team whose performance exceeds expectations. The following teams, listed in order by team name, are the teams we expect to outplay their seeding.

2004 NCAA Tournament Analysis by Matt Satten

Total Wins By 2004 Sleeper Teams: 1 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seeds)

11. Air Force

One of the last at-large teams to gain entry into the Big Dance, the Falcons are in for the first time since 1962. I bet they’re stoked to be playing UNC. Sarcasm aside, the Air Force spent part of the season in the top 25 and finished with the best conference record ever in the five-year history of the MWC. This scrappy team could scare a lot of squads, especially considering their phenomenal three-point accuracy and how they hold their opponents to just over 50 points per game.

Key Player: This isn’t a one-man team by any stretch of the imagination but Tim Keller is the biggest impact player and A.J. Kuhle is cool under pressure.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

9. Arizona

– The Wildcats are making their 20th straight appearance at the Dance and plan not to pussyfoot around this year despite their lowest seed in nearly two decades. ‘Zona is loaded with talent across their starting five, but depth is a major concern. No team in the country may have as much athleticism as the ‘Cats yet for some reason Lute Olson’s crew this year hasn’t been able to jell like the great Arizona teams of the past. If ‘Zona can sneak by Seton Hall in the opening round, their game against Duke will be the marquee matchup in the field of 32.

Key Player: Mustafa Shakur is only a freshman running the point but it’s the play of Salim Stoudamire that will make or break this squad.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

10. Dayton

After the Flyers received a No. 4 seed last year and flopped magnificently, the committee wasn’t as quick to show Dayton the love this year. Even so, Dayton is undefeated this season when it scores 70 or more points (18-0 in the regular season). How will this A-10 fare the second time around?

Key Player: Leading scorer Ramod Marshall’s health bears watching considering he battled a bad back all season.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

13. East Tenn St

Believe it or not, the Buccaneers are one tough team and won’t be intimidated by Cincinnati in their opening round game. The Bucs captured the Southern Conference trophy behind the strong play of sophomore guard Tim Smith and their high-octane offense.

Key Player: Smith needs to put up or shut up for Southern to make noise either way.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

10. Louisville

After an early 16-game winning streak had Rick “The Ruler” Pitino’s club ranked in the top five, the Cardinals really struggled down the stretch losing eight of their last 12 and nearly had their bubble popped by the selection committee. Luckily for Louisville, Pitino’s reputation got them into the Dance where they now have a chance to do some damage. Injuries to their three marquee players have hobbled this team during the stretch run, but it appears they are all finally healthy at just the right moment. One shining moment perhaps?

Key Player: While Francisco Garcia has been the team’s best player all season long, forward Luke Whitehead is the gasoline in the engine.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

12. Manhattan

Head Coach Bobby Gonzalez has his Manhattan crew back at the Ball for a second straight season after the Jaspers big win in the MAAC tourney final. For the second straight season, this is a definite sleeper team thanks to the presence of super scorer Luis Flores. Now a senior, Flores can get his shot off whenever he pleases and is good for 24 points a night.

Key Player: Flores is a one man gang for the Jaspers. If he’s on his game, the Jaspers could be headed to Upset City.

Actual Wins: 1 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. Richmond

We gotta give some love to the Spiders. The A-10 Conference came through with four teams in the Dance thanks to Richmond’s berth. Perhaps given more credit than they deserve for their victory over Kansas, nonetheless the Spiders are ready to bite any team they play with their swarming defense and consistent counterpunching. Proving that point is senior Mike Skrocki who has scored in double figures in every game this season.

Key Player: Senior point guard Tony Dobbins is the only A-10 player to rank in the top 10 in rebounds, steals and blocked shots. That’s not a misprint; he’s a point guard.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

13. Texas El Paso

Where have you gone Tim Hardaway?. Gone are the days of the now infamous UTEP Two-Step but there’s new life in El Paso thanks to the single greatest turnaround in NCAA history from one year to the next. Junior swingman Omar Thomas is the Miners top scoring threat

Key Player: Puerto Rican national team member Filiberto Rivera is the floor general for UTEP, but he’s been bothered by a sprained ankle as of late. The condition of Rivera’s ankle could make a huge difference in UTEP’s showing.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. Utah

Utah is always prepared and former coach Rick Majerus will likely be involved in the gameplanning. The team is ranked sixth nationally in scoring defense at 56.9 points per game allowed and is also fourth nationally in rebound margin at plus 7.8. This team is a perfect choice for an upset or two.

Key Player: One of the older players in college ball, Nick Jacobson is also one of its purest marksmen.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. Western Mich

The Broncos run a fast-breaking offense that could catch more than a few teams by surprise if they’re not ready for the up-tempo style that ran wild on the MAC this season. Senior forward Mike Williams is the man for WMU, heading the team in points, pulls, steals and blocks.

Key Player: Ben Reed has got a butter stroke from deep and is connecting at a 46.5 percent clip on his triples. If he and Williams get hot together, uh-oh.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)